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Highest temperature in NYC on July 5?

Cross-platform snapshot for "Highest temperature in NYC on July 5?": deepest order book, lowest fee, geo-coverage at a glance.

78-79°F 56% 76-77°F 33% 80-81°F 11% 82-83°F 5% Volume: $174K Liquidity: $65K Closes: 5 Jul 2026
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Highest temperature in NYC on July 5?

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 56% 44% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Open the market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 56% 44% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Open the market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Open the market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Open the market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Open the market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
78-79°F56%
76-77°F33%
80-81°F11%
82-83°F5%
84-85°F3%
73°F or below0%
74-75°F0%
86-87°F0%
88-89°F0%
90-91°F0%
92°F or higher0%

Market context

Market consensus: 56% chance of highest temperature in nyc on july 5?. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Jul '26. The resolutio…

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in NYC on July 5? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
What about Smarkets as an alternative?
Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
Are all these platforms regulated?
No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
Alex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market AnalystandJordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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