Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
89% | 11% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
89% | 11% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 89% |
| England O/U 0.5 | 72% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 71% |
| O/U 1.5 | 66% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 64% |
| Mexico O/U 0.5 | 64% |
| England 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| England 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Mexico 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score | 48% |
| Team to Advance | 47% |
| England 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| O/U 2.5 | 39% |
| Mexico 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 37% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| England O/U 1.5 | 34% |
| Will the Match Go to Extra Time? | 31% |
| Mexico 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 30% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 27% |
| Mexico O/U 1.5 | 27% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 22% |
| Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? | 21% |
| O/U 3.5 | 20% |
| England (-1.5) | 17% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 17% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Mexico (-1.5) | 12% |
| England O/U 2.5 | 12% |
| England 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 10% |
| O/U 4.5 | 8% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 8% |
| Mexico O/U 2.5 | 8% |
| Mexico 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 8% |
| England (-2.5) | 6% |
| Mexico (-2.5) | 3% |
| O/U 5.5 | 3% |
| England (-3.5) | 2% |
| Mexico (-4.5) | 2% |
| Mexico (-3.5) | 1% |
| England (-4.5) | 1% |
| O/U 6.5 | 1% |
| O/U 7.5 | 1% |
| O/U 8.5 | 1% |
| Mexico (-5.5) | 0% |
| England (-5.5) | 0% |
Market context
The Mexico vs. England - More Markets prediction market currently prices this outcome at 89% YES. More markets for the FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for July 5 at 8:00 PM ET.
Methodology
We read Mexico vs. England - More Markets from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
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