Highest temperature in Seoul on May 28?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 28 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. The settlement mechanism relies on historical data from Weather Underground, which archives daily temperature records for this major Seoul-area weather station. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a particular range or minimal trading activity on this specific outcome—a common pattern for niche weather markets where liquidity clusters around broader seasonal bands rather than precise daily highs.

Seoul's late May climate typically produces highs between 24–28°C, though anomalies occur. Historical data from May 2024 and 2025 shows variability: the region experienced a 29°C peak in May 2024 and cooler 22–25°C ranges in other years, depending on monsoon onset timing and high-pressure system positioning. Traders comparing Polymarket against Kalshi or Betfair will find decimal odds conversion differs across platforms—Polymarket's binary YES/NO structure contrasts with Kalshi's more granular range-based settlement, whilst Betfair's lay functionality allows shorting outcomes directly. Fee structures also diverge: Polymarket charges 2% on winnings, Kalshi typically 5%, and Betfair's commission scales with volume.

The resolution window closes at 12:00 UTC on 28 May, but actual temperature data may not populate Weather Underground until several hours after local midnight. Traders should monitor Korean Meteorological Administration forecasts in the week prior, as spring weather systems can shift rapidly. Early May 2026 atmospheric patterns—particularly whether the North Pacific high-pressure system establishes early—will determine whether temperatures trend toward cooler or warmer ranges.

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Seoul on May 28? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Alternative is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Alternative?

Zero. Polymarket Alternative routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Alternative triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.