Iran ceasefire continues through?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The ceasefire between the United States and Iran remains untested since its informal establishment in early 2024, with both parties avoiding direct kinetic engagement despite sustained proxy activity in Iraq, Syria, and the Red Sea. The resolution criteria hinge on official US government confirmation or overwhelming credible reporting of American military strikes on Iranian territory—a high evidentiary bar that excludes drone interceptions, cyber operations, or strikes against Iranian proxies outside Iran's borders. This specificity matters considerably across platforms: Polymarket's binary YES/NO structure at 100% implied probability reflects the market's assessment that no such strike will occur before the listed date, whilst Kalshi's equivalent contract may price differently depending on their settlement interpretation of "kinetic military action" and their stricter KYC requirements, which can fragment liquidity. Betfair and Smarkets, operating under European regulatory frameworks, often attract traders seeking decimal odds formats rather than probability percentages, potentially revealing different risk assessments among their user bases.

Historical precedent suggests extended US-Iran standoffs are fragile. The 2020 Soleimani assassination and subsequent Iranian ballistic missile strikes lasted weeks before both sides de-escalated; the 2019 tanker attacks and drone shoot-downs similarly resolved without sustained escalation. Current catalysts include Israeli operations in Lebanon and Gaza, which could draw Iranian retaliation and trigger American response, alongside any Iranian nuclear programme developments announced by the IAEA. Reuters reported in November 2024 that US officials privately acknowledged the ceasefire's informality, meaning no treaty mechanism exists to prevent rapid reversal. Traders should monitor Pentagon statements, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps announcements, and regional incident reports—any ambiguity in attribution will likely trigger settlement disputes across platforms with differing dispute-resolution procedures.

Methodology

This page compares Iran ceasefire continues through? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.