Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
59% | 41% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
59% | 41% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open WTA: Lanlana Tararudee vs Linda Noskova Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 59% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Lanlana Tararudee vs Linda Noskova Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Lanlana Tararudee vs Linda Noskova Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Lanlana Tararudee vs Linda Noskova Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Lanlana Tararudee vs Linda Noskova Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Lanlana Tararudee vs Linda Noskova Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Lanlana Tararudee vs Linda Noskova Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Lanlana Tararudee vs Linda Noskova Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Lanlana Tararudee vs Linda Noskova Game Spread +/-4.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Lanlana Tararudee vs Linda Noskova Match O/U 21.5 | 46% |
| US Open WTA: Lanlana Tararudee vs Linda Noskova Match O/U 22.5 | 38% |
| US Open WTA: Lanlana Tararudee vs Linda Noskova Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 31% |
| US Open WTA: Lanlana Tararudee vs Linda Noskova Set 1 Winner | 28% |
| US Open WTA: Lanlana Tararudee vs Linda Noskova Set 2 Winner | 25% |
| US Open WTA: Lanlana Tararudee vs Linda Noskova | 19% |
| US Open WTA: Lanlana Tararudee vs Linda Noskova Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 11% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 59% probability to us open wta: lanlana tararudee vs linda noskova. This market refers to the tennis match between Lanlana Tararudee and Linda Noskova in the US Open WTA, originally scheduled for September 2, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Lanlana T…
Methodology
We read US Open WTA: Lanlana Tararudee vs Linda Noskova from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Polymarket Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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