Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Pan Pacific Open: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Nikola Bartunkova Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Pan Pacific Open: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Nikola Bartunkova Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Pan Pacific Open: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Nikola Bartunkova Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Pan Pacific Open: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Nikola Bartunkova Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Pan Pacific Open: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Nikola Bartunkova Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Pan Pacific Open: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Nikola Bartunkova Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Pan Pacific Open: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Nikola Bartunkova Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Pan Pacific Open: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Nikola Bartunkova Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Pan Pacific Open: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Nikola Bartunkova Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Pan Pacific Open: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Nikola Bartunkova Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Pan Pacific Open: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Nikola Bartunkova | 59% |
| Completed Match | 54% |
| Pan Pacific Open: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Nikola Bartunkova Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Pan Pacific Open: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Nikola Bartunkova Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Pan Pacific Open: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Nikola Bartunkova Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Pan Pacific Open: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Nikola Bartunkova Game Spread +/-3.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to pan pacific open: aliaksandra sasnovich vs nikola bartunkova. This market refers to the tennis match between Aliaksandra Sasnovich and Nikola Bartunkova in the Pan Pacific Open, originally scheduled for October 25, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve t…
Methodology
We read Pan Pacific Open: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Nikola Bartunkova from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Polymarket Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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