Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Platform comparison

Market context

Israel’s next prime minister will only be determined once a new government is formally formed after the 2026 election, so interim caretaker arrangements do not count for settlement. The current crowd price of 33% for Benjamin Netanyahu on Polymarket should be read as a direct implied probability, while comparable books such as Betfair and Smarkets typically show decimal odds that need to be converted to probabilities and adjusted for commission; that makes cross-platform comparison less clean than the headline figures suggest. Reuters reported in late June that former military chief Gadi Eisenkot had surged in polls and could oust Netanyahu, which helps explain why the market has not priced this as a one-horse race.[6]

Historical precedent in Israel matters because coalition arithmetic often decides the premiership more than the largest vote share. Netanyahu is the incumbent and has already returned to office multiple times, but recent polling has also kept Eisenkot, Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman in the conversation as potential coalition leaders.[12][8][9][10] On Polymarket, traders can express that directly in probability terms; on Betfair or Smarkets, the same view is embedded in back/lay prices and subject to exchange fees, with access and KYC limits varying by jurisdiction, which can affect how quickly these markets reprice around coalition talks.

The main catalysts are the election timetable, party list formation, polling shifts and post-election coalition negotiations. Legislative elections are scheduled for 27 October 2026, but an earlier snap vote would move the settlement trigger forward, and any delay in government formation keeps “Other” in play if no sworn-in prime minister emerges before the market’s deadline.[11][13] Watch for cabinet resignations, party mergers, and endorsement signalling from kingmaker blocs, because in Israel the decisive event is often not the vote itself but the formal appointment and swearing-in after bargaining ends.[11][16]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

Which platform has the deepest liquidity?

Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.

Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?

Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.

What about Smarkets as an alternative?

Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.

Are all these platforms regulated?

No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.

Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?

Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.