Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open WTA: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open WTA: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Set 2 Winner | 95% |
| US Open WTA: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 94% |
| US Open WTA: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Match O/U 21.5 | 76% |
| US Open WTA: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally | 56% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Game Spread +/-2.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 8% |
| US Open WTA: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| US Open WTA: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| US Open WTA: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| US Open WTA: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for US Open WTA: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally. This market refers to the tennis match between Emma Navarro and Caty McNally in the US Open WTA, originally scheduled for September 2, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Emma Navarro' i…
Methodology
This page compares US Open WTA: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Polymarket Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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