Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
90% | 10% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
90% | 10% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open ATP: Dino Prizmic vs Tommy Paul Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 90% |
| US Open ATP: Dino Prizmic vs Tommy Paul Game Spread +/-5.5 | 86% |
| US Open ATP: Dino Prizmic vs Tommy Paul Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 77% |
| US Open ATP: Dino Prizmic vs Tommy Paul Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 55% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Dino Prizmic vs Tommy Paul Match O/U 38.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Dino Prizmic vs Tommy Paul Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Dino Prizmic vs Tommy Paul Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Dino Prizmic vs Tommy Paul Set 4 Winner | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Dino Prizmic vs Tommy Paul Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Dino Prizmic vs Tommy Paul Match O/U 40.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Dino Prizmic vs Tommy Paul Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Dino Prizmic vs Tommy Paul Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Dino Prizmic vs Tommy Paul Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Dino Prizmic vs Tommy Paul Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Dino Prizmic vs Tommy Paul Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Dino Prizmic vs Tommy Paul Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Dino Prizmic vs Tommy Paul Match O/U 36.5 | 23% |
| US Open ATP: Dino Prizmic vs Tommy Paul Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 22% |
| US Open ATP: Dino Prizmic vs Tommy Paul Set 3 Winner | 22% |
| US Open ATP: Dino Prizmic vs Tommy Paul | 3% |
| US Open ATP: Dino Prizmic vs Tommy Paul Set 2 Winner | 3% |
| US Open ATP: Dino Prizmic vs Tommy Paul Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Dino Prizmic vs Tommy Paul Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Dino Prizmic vs Tommy Paul Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Dino Prizmic vs Tommy Paul Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 90% YES probability for US Open ATP: Dino Prizmic vs Tommy Paul. This market refers to the tennis match between Dino Prizmic and Tommy Paul in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 2, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Dino Prizmic' if …
Methodology
We read US Open ATP: Dino Prizmic vs Tommy Paul from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Polymarket Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
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