Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
77% | 23% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
77% | 23% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Jiri Lehecka vs Zizou Bergs Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 77% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Jiri Lehecka vs Zizou Bergs | 72% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Jiri Lehecka vs Zizou Bergs Set 1 Winner | 66% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Jiri Lehecka vs Zizou Bergs Set 2 Winner | 65% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Jiri Lehecka vs Zizou Bergs Match O/U 21.5 | 55% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Jiri Lehecka vs Zizou Bergs Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 54% |
| Completed Match | 53% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Jiri Lehecka vs Zizou Bergs Game Spread +/-3.5 | 52% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Jiri Lehecka vs Zizou Bergs Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Jiri Lehecka vs Zizou Bergs Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Jiri Lehecka vs Zizou Bergs Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Jiri Lehecka vs Zizou Bergs Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Jiri Lehecka vs Zizou Bergs Match O/U 22.5 | 46% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Jiri Lehecka vs Zizou Bergs Match O/U 23.5 | 41% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Jiri Lehecka vs Zizou Bergs Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 37% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Jiri Lehecka vs Zizou Bergs Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 32% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 77% YES probability for Japan Open Tennis Championships: Jiri Lehecka vs Zizou Bergs. This market refers to the tennis match between Jiri Lehecka and Zizou Bergs in the Japan Open Tennis Championships, originally scheduled for September 29, 2026 at 9:00PM ET. This market will resolve …
Methodology
We read Japan Open Tennis Championships: Jiri Lehecka vs Zizou Bergs from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Polymarket Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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