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US Open ATP: Benjamin Bonzi vs Ignacio Buse

Which venue prices "US Open ATP: Benjamin Bonzi vs Ignacio Buse" best? Direct comparison of Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair and Smarkets.

US Open ATP: Benjamin Bonzi vs Ignacio Buse Set 1 O/U 8.5 76% US Open ATP: Benjamin Bonzi vs Ignacio Buse Total Sets: O/U 3.5 67% US Open ATP: Benjamin Bonzi vs Ignacio Buse Match O/U 36.5 57% US Open ATP: Benjamin Bonzi vs Ignacio Buse Set 1 O/U 9.5 56% Volume: $76K Liquidity: $409K Closes: 10 Sept 2026
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US Open ATP: Benjamin Bonzi vs Ignacio Buse

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
76% 24% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Open the market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
76% 24% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Open the market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Open the market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Open the market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Open the market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
US Open ATP: Benjamin Bonzi vs Ignacio Buse Set 1 O/U 8.576%
US Open ATP: Benjamin Bonzi vs Ignacio Buse Total Sets: O/U 3.567%
US Open ATP: Benjamin Bonzi vs Ignacio Buse Match O/U 36.557%
US Open ATP: Benjamin Bonzi vs Ignacio Buse Set 1 O/U 9.556%
US Open ATP: Benjamin Bonzi vs Ignacio Buse Match O/U 38.551%
Completed Match50%
US Open ATP: Benjamin Bonzi vs Ignacio Buse Set 2 O/U 8.550%
US Open ATP: Benjamin Bonzi vs Ignacio Buse Set 3 Winner50%
US Open ATP: Benjamin Bonzi vs Ignacio Buse Set 2 O/U 9.550%
US Open ATP: Benjamin Bonzi vs Ignacio Buse Set 4 Winner50%
US Open ATP: Benjamin Bonzi vs Ignacio Buse Set 2 O/U 10.550%
US Open ATP: Benjamin Bonzi vs Ignacio Buse Set 3 O/U 8.550%
US Open ATP: Benjamin Bonzi vs Ignacio Buse Set 3 O/U 9.550%
US Open ATP: Benjamin Bonzi vs Ignacio Buse Set 3 O/U 10.550%
US Open ATP: Benjamin Bonzi vs Ignacio Buse Set 4 O/U 8.550%
US Open ATP: Benjamin Bonzi vs Ignacio Buse Set 4 O/U 9.550%
US Open ATP: Benjamin Bonzi vs Ignacio Buse Set 4 O/U 10.550%
US Open ATP: Benjamin Bonzi vs Ignacio Buse Set 2 Winner49%
US Open ATP: Benjamin Bonzi vs Ignacio Buse Set 1 Winner49%
US Open ATP: Benjamin Bonzi vs Ignacio Buse48%
US Open ATP: Benjamin Bonzi vs Ignacio Buse Match O/U 40.548%
US Open ATP: Benjamin Bonzi vs Ignacio Buse Game Spread +/-1.548%
US Open ATP: Benjamin Bonzi vs Ignacio Buse Set Handicap +/-1.539%
US Open ATP: Benjamin Bonzi vs Ignacio Buse Set Handicap +/-1.534%
US Open ATP: Benjamin Bonzi vs Ignacio Buse Total Sets: O/U 4.530%
US Open ATP: Benjamin Bonzi vs Ignacio Buse Set 1 O/U 10.530%
US Open ATP: Benjamin Bonzi vs Ignacio Buse Set Handicap +/-2.519%
US Open ATP: Benjamin Bonzi vs Ignacio Buse Set Handicap +/-2.515%

Market context

The US Open ATP: Benjamin Bonzi vs Ignacio Buse prediction market currently prices this outcome at 76% YES. This market refers to the tennis match between Benjamin Bonzi and Ignacio Buse in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 3, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Benjamin Bonz…

Methodology

This page compares US Open ATP: Benjamin Bonzi vs Ignacio Buse specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
What about Smarkets as an alternative?
Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
Which platform is accessible globally?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Polymarket Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
Are all these platforms regulated?
No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
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Related Topics

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