Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map Handicap: AG.AL (-1.5) vs Global Esports (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-2.5) vs Global Esports (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 90% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Global Esports (-2.5) vs AG.AL International (+2.5) | 51% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 51% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 51% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 51% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 26.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 28.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Global Esports (-2.5) vs AG.AL International (+2.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Global Esports (-3.5) vs AG.AL International (+3.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Global Esports (-4.5) vs AG.AL International (+4.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-2.5) vs Global Esports (+2.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-4.5) vs Global Esports (+4.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-3.5) vs Global Esports (+3.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-5.5) vs Global Esports (+5.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map Handicap: GE (-1.5) vs AG.AL International (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Global Esports (-2.5) vs AG.AL International (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-4.5) vs Global Esports (+4.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-3.5) vs Global Esports (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of valorant: global esports vs ag.al international (bo3) - esports world cup group d. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the Valorant Elimination match between Global Esports and AG.AL International in the Esports World Cup Group D, initially scheduled for July 5 at 7:00AM ET. …
Methodology
We read Valorant: Global Esports vs AG.AL International (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Polymarket Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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