Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open WTA: Jessica Pegula vs Sofia Kenin | 94% |
| US Open WTA: Jessica Pegula vs Sofia Kenin Set 2 Winner | 91% |
| US Open WTA: Jessica Pegula vs Sofia Kenin Set 1 Winner | 85% |
| US Open WTA: Jessica Pegula vs Sofia Kenin Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 77% |
| US Open WTA: Jessica Pegula vs Sofia Kenin Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 56% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Jessica Pegula vs Sofia Kenin Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Jessica Pegula vs Sofia Kenin Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Jessica Pegula vs Sofia Kenin Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Jessica Pegula vs Sofia Kenin Game Spread +/-6.5 | 48% |
| US Open WTA: Jessica Pegula vs Sofia Kenin Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 44% |
| US Open WTA: Jessica Pegula vs Sofia Kenin Match O/U 21.5 | 36% |
| US Open WTA: Jessica Pegula vs Sofia Kenin Match O/U 23.5 | 33% |
| US Open WTA: Jessica Pegula vs Sofia Kenin Match O/U 22.5 | 25% |
| US Open WTA: Jessica Pegula vs Sofia Kenin Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 22% |
| US Open WTA: Jessica Pegula vs Sofia Kenin Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 15% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 94% probability to us open wta: jessica pegula vs sofia kenin. This market refers to the tennis match between Jessica Pegula and Sofia Kenin in the US Open WTA, originally scheduled for September 2, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Jessica Pegula…
Methodology
This page compares US Open WTA: Jessica Pegula vs Sofia Kenin specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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