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LoL: T1 vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs

Cross-platform snapshot for "LoL: T1 vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs": deepest order book, lowest fee, geo-coverage at a glance.

Match Winner 98% Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs FURIA Esports (+1.5) 97% Game 1 Winner 92% Game 2 Winner 92% Volume: $149K Liquidity: $472K Closes: 6 Jul 2026
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LoL: T1 vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
98% 2% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Open the market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
98% 2% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Open the market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Open the market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Open the market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Open the market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Match Winner98%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs FURIA Esports (+1.5)97%
Game 1 Winner92%
Game 2 Winner92%
Game 3 Winner92%
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs FURIA Esports (+2.5)79%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon72%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?67%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?67%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?64%
Odd/Even Total Kills63%
Game 4 Winner57%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3?57%
Odd/Even Total Kills55%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon54%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?54%
First Blood in Game 1?53%
Odd/Even Total Kills51%
Odd/Even Total Kills51%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor51%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors51%
Any Player Quadra Kill51%
Odd/Even Total Kills51%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor51%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors51%
Any Player Quadra Kill51%
Any Player Penta Kill51%
First Blood in Game 2?51%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
First Blood in Game 4?50%
First Blood in Game 3?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4?50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor49%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors49%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors49%
Any Player Penta Kill49%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors49%
Any Player Penta Kill49%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon49%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon49%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?48%
Any Player Penta Kill47%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4?31%
O/U 3.5 Games21%
O/U 4.5 Games3%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, lol: t1 vs furia esports (bo5) - mid-season invitational playoffs stands at 98% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket round 1 match between T1 and FURIA Esports in the Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 6 at 4:00AM ET. This m…

Methodology

This page compares LoL: T1 vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
Which platform is accessible globally?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Polymarket Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
and

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