Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 33.5 | 93% |
| O/U 35.5 | 90% |
| O/U 37.5 | 88% |
| O/U 39.5 | 84% |
| O/U 41.5 | 79% |
| Florida State O/U 18.5 | 78% |
| O/U 43.5 | 76% |
| SMU O/U 21.5 | 75% |
| Florida State O/U 19.5 | 74% |
| SMU O/U 22.5 | 74% |
| O/U 45.5 | 73% |
| Florida State O/U 20.5 | 70% |
| O/U 47.5 | 67% |
| Florida State O/U 21.5 | 66% |
| Florida State O/U 22.5 | 65% |
| O/U 49.5 | 63% |
| SMU O/U 25.5 | 63% |
| SMU O/U 24.5 | 62% |
| Florida State O/U 23.5 | 60% |
| O/U 51.5 | 59% |
| SMU vs. Florida State | 57% |
| O/U 52.5 | 56% |
| Spread -0.5 | 56% |
| O/U 53.5 | 55% |
| Spread -1.5 | 55% |
| 1H Moneyline | 55% |
| SMU 1H O/U 13.5 | 55% |
| Florida State O/U 24.5 | 54% |
| SMU O/U 27.5 | 53% |
| Florida State 1H O/U 12.5 | 53% |
| Florida State O/U 25.5 | 53% |
| Florida State O/U 1.5 | 53% |
| O/U 54.5 | 53% |
| Spread: SMU (-2.5) | 52% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 52% |
| Florida State 1H O/U 10.5 | 52% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 51% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 51% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 51% |
| SMU 1H O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| SMU 2H O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| SMU 2H O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| SMU 2H O/U 15.5 | 51% |
| Florida State 2H O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Florida State 2H O/U 15.5 | 51% |
| Quintrevion Wisner: Anytime Touchdown | 51% |
| Jayvan Boggs: Anytime Touchdown | 51% |
| Randy Pittman Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 51% |
| Landen Thomas: Anytime Touchdown | 51% |
| Jalen Hale: Anytime Touchdown | 51% |
| Desirrio Riles: Anytime Touchdown | 51% |
| SMU O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| Florida State 1H O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| SMU 2H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| SMU 2H O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| SMU 2H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| SMU 1H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Florida State 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| SMU 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Florida State 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Dramekco Green: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Christian Rhodes: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Isaiah Robertson: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| SMU O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Florida State O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Florida State 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Florida State 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| SMU 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| SMU 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 49% |
| Florida State O/U 26.5 | 49% |
| SMU O/U 28.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 48% |
| O/U 55.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 47% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 46% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 46% |
| SMU O/U 3.5 | 46% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 45% |
| Florida State O/U 27.5 | 45% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 44% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| Spread -3.5 | 43% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 43% |
| SMU O/U 30.5 | 43% |
| O/U 57.5 | 42% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 42% |
| Spread -4.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 41% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| Spread -5.5 | 40% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| Florida State O/U 28.5 | 40% |
| Spread -6.5 | 39% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| Florida State O/U 3.5 | 39% |
| Florida State O/U 29.5 | 38% |
| O/U 59.5 | 37% |
| SMU O/U 31.5 | 37% |
| Florida State O/U 30.5 | 35% |
| Spread -34.5 | 34% |
| Florida State O/U 2.5 | 34% |
| Spread -7.5 | 33% |
| SMU O/U 33.5 | 33% |
| O/U 61.5 | 32% |
| Kendrick Raphael: Anytime Touchdown | 32% |
| SMU O/U 2.5 | 31% |
| Ousmane Kromah: Anytime Touchdown | 29% |
| Spread -8.5 | 28% |
| Spread -31.5 | 28% |
| Florida State O/U 32.5 | 28% |
| Florida State O/U 31.5 | 28% |
| SMU O/U 34.5 | 28% |
| O/U 63.5 | 27% |
| Samuel Singleton Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 26% |
| Spread -10.5 | 25% |
| Derrick McFall: Anytime Touchdown | 25% |
| O/U 65.5 | 24% |
| Ashton Daniels: Anytime Touchdown | 22% |
| Spread -13.5 | 21% |
| Duce Robinson: Anytime Touchdown | 21% |
| O/U 67.5 | 20% |
| Yamir Knight: Anytime Touchdown | 20% |
| Micahi Danzy: Anytime Touchdown | 19% |
| SMU O/U 3.5 | 19% |
| Spread -14.5 | 18% |
| Yannick Smith: Anytime Touchdown | 18% |
| O/U 69.5 | 17% |
| Spread -16.5 | 16% |
| Jalen Cooper: Anytime Touchdown | 16% |
| Theo Melin Ohrstrom: Anytime Touchdown | 16% |
| Spread -17.5 | 14% |
| Kevin Jennings: Anytime Touchdown | 14% |
| O/U 71.5 | 13% |
| Florida State O/U 3.5 | 13% |
| Spread -20.5 | 11% |
| O/U 73.5 | 11% |
| Spread -21.5 | 10% |
| Spread -24.5 | 7% |
| Spread -27.5 | 6% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 93% probability to smu vs. florida state. In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for September 7 at 7:30PM ET: If SMU wins, the market will resolve to "SMU". If Florida State wins, the market will resolve to "Florida State". If the …
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $87K.
Methodology
We read SMU vs. Florida State from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Polymarket Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
Trade SMU vs. Florida State on Polymarket Alternative
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