Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Alexandre Muller | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Alexandre Muller Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Alexandre Muller Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Alexandre Muller Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Alexandre Muller Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Alexandre Muller Game Spread +/-2.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Alexandre Muller Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Alexandre Muller Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Alexandre Muller Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Alexandre Muller Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Alexandre Muller Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Alexandre Muller Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Alexandre Muller Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Alexandre Muller Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Alexandre Muller Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to us open, qualification atp: rei sakamoto vs alexandre muller. This market refers to the tennis match between Rei Sakamoto and Alexandre Muller in the US Open, Qualification ATP, originally scheduled for August 26, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to…
Methodology
This page compares US Open, Qualification ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Alexandre Muller specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Polymarket Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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