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Brazil vs. Norway - Player Props

Cross-platform snapshot for "Brazil vs. Norway - Player Props": deepest order book, lowest fee, geo-coverage at a glance.

Erling Haaland: 1+ shots 96% Vinícius Júnior: 1+ shots 94% Matheus Cunha: 1+ shots 79% Erling Haaland: 2+ shots 77% Volume: $230K Liquidity: $1.5M Closes: 5 Jul 2026
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Brazil vs. Norway - Player Props

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
96% 4% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Open the market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
96% 4% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Open the market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Open the market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Open the market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Open the market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Erling Haaland: 1+ shots96%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ shots94%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ shots79%
Erling Haaland: 2+ shots77%
Alexander Sørloth: 1+ shots75%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ shots74%
Erling Haaland: 3+ shots66%
Matheus Cunha: 2+ shots63%
Antonio Nusa: 1+ shots62%
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shots56%
Alisson: 4+ saves49%
Alexander Sørloth: 3+ shots on target48%
Igor Thiago: 1+ shots on target48%
Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ shots on target48%
Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ shots on target48%
Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ shots on target48%
Jørgen Strand Larsen: 4+ shots on target48%
Raphinha: 1+ shots on target48%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ shots on target48%
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shots on target48%
Vinícius Júnior: 4+ shots on target48%
Alisson: 2+ saves48%
Alisson: 5+ saves48%
Ørjan Nyland: 2+ saves48%
Ørjan Nyland: 3+ saves48%
Ørjan Nyland: 5+ saves48%
Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goals + assists48%
Alexander Sørloth: 4+ goals + assists48%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals + assists48%
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals + assists48%
Vinícius Júnior: 4+ goals + assists48%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals44%
Antonio Nusa: 2+ shots44%
Erling Haaland: 1+ shots on target44%
Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ shots43%
Erling Haaland: 4+ shots42%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals41%
Igor Thiago: 1+ shots40%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ shots on target39%
Raphinha: 1+ goals + assists39%
Igor Thiago: 2+ shots on target35%
Ørjan Nyland: 4+ saves34%
Matheus Cunha: 3+ goals + assists34%
Matheus Cunha: 3+ shots33%
Raphinha: 2+ shots on target33%
Matheus Cunha: 2+ goals + assists33%
Alexander Sørloth: 1+ shots on target32%
Alisson: 3+ saves32%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals + assists32%
Raphinha: 2+ goals + assists32%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals31%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals + assists30%
Raphinha: 3+ goals + assists30%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals + assists30%
Vinícius Júnior: 4+ shots29%
Erling Haaland: 2+ shots on target28%
Erling Haaland: 4+ shots on target28%
Igor Thiago: 3+ shots on target28%
Matheus Cunha: 4+ shots on target28%
Raphinha: 3+ shots on target28%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ shots on target28%
Antonio Nusa: 3+ goals + assists28%
Antonio Nusa: 4+ goals + assists28%
Erling Haaland: 4+ goals + assists28%
Matheus Cunha: 4+ goals + assists28%
Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots27%
Raphinha: 1+ shots27%
Antonio Nusa: 3+ shots on target27%
Raphinha: 4+ shots on target27%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals + assists27%
Erling Haaland: 5+ shots26%
Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ shots26%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ assists26%
Antonio Nusa: 1+ shots on target26%
Igor Thiago: 4+ shots on target26%
Igor Thiago: 2+ shots24%
Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals + assists24%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals + assists24%
Raphinha: 2+ shots23%
Antonio Nusa: 2+ goals + assists22%
Alexander Sørloth: 3+ shots21%
Igor Thiago: 4+ shots21%
Matheus Cunha: 2+ shots on target21%
Raphinha: 4+ goals + assists21%
Matheus Cunha: 4+ shots20%
Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals + assists19%
Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals + assists18%
Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals17%
Matheus Cunha: 5+ shots16%
Antonio Nusa: 3+ shots14%
Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ shots14%
Vinícius Júnior: 5+ shots14%
Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots on target14%
Erling Haaland: 3+ shots on target14%
Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals13%
Igor Thiago: 1+ goals13%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals12%
Alexander Sørloth: 4+ shots12%
Antonio Nusa: 1+ assists12%
Antonio Nusa: 2+ shots on target12%
Matheus Cunha: 3+ shots on target12%
Igor Thiago: 3+ shots11%
Erling Haaland: 1+ assists11%
Raphinha: 1+ goals10%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals10%
Alexander Sørloth: 1+ assists10%
Jørgen Strand Larsen: 4+ shots9%
Antonio Nusa: 4+ shots8%
Raphinha: 3+ shots8%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ assists8%
Alexander Sørloth: 5+ shots7%
Igor Thiago: 5+ shots7%
Jørgen Strand Larsen: 5+ shots7%
Raphinha: 4+ shots7%
Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ goals6%
Raphinha: 1+ assists6%
Matheus Cunha: 2+ goals4%
Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goals3%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals3%
Raphinha: 5+ shots3%
Antonio Nusa: 2+ assists3%
Raphinha: 2+ assists3%
Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ goals2%
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals2%
Antonio Nusa: 5+ shots2%
Alexander Sørloth: 2+ assists2%
Erling Haaland: 2+ assists2%
Matheus Cunha: 2+ assists2%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ assists2%
Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals1%
Antonio Nusa: 2+ goals1%
Igor Thiago: 2+ goals1%
Igor Thiago: 3+ goals1%
Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ goals1%
Matheus Cunha: 3+ goals1%
Raphinha: 2+ goals1%
Raphinha: 3+ goals1%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, brazil vs. norway - player props stands at 96% likelihood according to current market consensus. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Brazil and Norway, scheduled for July 5 at 4:00 PM ET.

Methodology

We read Brazil vs. Norway - Player Props from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
Are all these platforms regulated?
No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
and

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