Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global seaborne oil passes, has experienced significant traffic disruption since late 2023 following Houthi attacks on commercial shipping. A return to "normal" operations—defined here as a 7-day moving average of 60 or more daily transit calls across all vessel types—would represent a sustained recovery from the current depressed baseline. The IMF Portwatch dataset tracks arrivals at key regional ports and provides the sole settlement mechanism for this market, making data availability and publication timing critical to resolution.

Historical precedent suggests recovery timelines vary sharply depending on threat persistence. The 2019 tanker attacks in the Gulf saw traffic resume near-normal levels within weeks once military escorts and de-escalation took hold. By contrast, the 2023–2024 disruption has proven more durable: transit calls averaged in the 40–50 range through much of 2024 and into early 2025, with no sustained period above 60 recorded. The 1% implied probability across major platforms reflects trader consensus that a full recovery within 16 months is unlikely absent either a dramatic security shift or a fundamental change in shipping routing behaviour.

Traders should monitor announcements from the US Navy's Fifth Fleet, Houthi statements, and any formal ceasefire agreements involving Yemen's Ansarullah movement. Recent reports from Reuters and Bloomberg in early 2025 indicate shipping companies continue to favour the longer Cape of Good Hope route despite cost premiums. Kalshi's 0.5–1.5 decimal odds on this market align with Polymarket's sub-2% probability, whilst Betfair's tighter spreads reflect lower liquidity. KYC requirements differ across platforms—Polymarket requires US residency verification, Kalshi operates under CFTC oversight with stricter identity checks—affecting which trader bases can access this specific contract.

Methodology

We read Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live quote comes directly from the Polygon order book; the other three are listed with their platform attributes — fees, KYC, settlement currency, payment options — because a 1:1 contract comparison without API access would be guesswork.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). Polymarket Alternative routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Alternative is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Alternative triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.