Highest temperature in Wellington on May 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Wellington's highest temperature on 25 May 2026 will be recorded at the airport weather station and resolved against historical data from Wunderground. May is late autumn in New Zealand's capital, with typical daily highs between 13–15°C. The 0% crowd probability across platforms suggests traders are either absent from this niche market or treating it as a placeholder pending seasonal forecasts closer to the date.

Historical May temperatures in Wellington show a ceiling around 20°C on warmer days, though extremes above 22°C occur roughly once per decade during the month. The current zero-probability reading reflects the market's early stage rather than a genuine consensus that no temperature will register. Comparable weather markets on Polymarket and Kalshi typically see activity spike 7–10 days before settlement as meteorological forecasts solidify; Betfair and Smarkets, which operate under different regulatory frameworks and fee structures, often show earlier price discovery on regional weather events due to their decimal-odds format attracting European traders familiar with local climate patterns.

Traders should monitor the Southern Oscillation Index and sea-surface temperatures around New Zealand in early May, as these drive autumn weather volatility. The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) publishes monthly outlooks; their April 2026 forecast will be the primary catalyst for repositioning. Kalshi's stricter KYC requirements may suppress liquidity compared to Polymarket's broader access, potentially leaving this market underpriced if an unusual warm front is predicted in the week before settlement.

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Wellington on May 25? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.