Highest temperature in Seoul on May 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 25 May 2026, Seoul's highest temperature will be recorded at Incheon International Airport Station and assigned to one of several temperature bands. The settlement mechanism relies on Wunderground's historical weather database, which aggregates hourly observations from the airport's meteorological instruments. This specificity—pinpointing a single day at a single location rather than a broader Seoul metropolitan region—narrows the outcome space considerably and makes the market sensitive to microclimatic variation and measurement timing.

Seoul's late May climate typically ranges between 20–28°C, with occasional heat waves pushing into the low 30s. Historical data from the past decade shows that extreme temperatures above 32°C on this date are rare but not unprecedented; the 0% implied probability currently reflected across major platforms suggests either a very narrow resolution band or significant disagreement about baseline expectations. Kalshi's decimal-odds format and Betfair's lay-betting mechanics would handle tail-risk scenarios differently than Polymarket's binary-style resolution, particularly if the market has been structured with wide temperature intervals that compress probability mass into fewer outcomes.

Traders should monitor South Korean meteorological forecasts released in early May 2026, particularly from the Korea Meteorological Administration, which publishes extended-range outlooks roughly two weeks in advance. Atmospheric patterns affecting East Asia in late spring—including subtropical high-pressure systems and tropical cyclone precursors—typically become clearer by mid-May. Fee structures across platforms (Polymarket's 2% settlement fee versus Kalshi's variable commission) will affect break-even thresholds if the market tightens significantly as the resolution date approaches.

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Seoul on May 25? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). PolyGram routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.