World Cup: Number of Missed Penalties

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The 2026 FIFA World Cup has not yet produced enough on-field data to make this market rich in historical signal, so the current **4% yes** pricing mostly reflects the long tail of a low-frequency event rather than a tournament-specific pattern. World Cup penalty misses are rare enough that even famous cases stand out: Roberto Baggio’s miss in the 1994 final remains the tournament’s best-known example, while historical penalty-shootout data show that shoot-outs are common but are explicitly excluded here, which keeps the relevant count much lower than casual football memory might suggest.[1][3][7] That matters for platform comparison too: on Polymarket the quote is best read as an implied probability, whereas Betfair and Smarkets usually present a decimal-odds view that can look less intuitive on very low-probability outcomes, and the effective price will also differ once commission or fees are included.

For traders, the key catalysts are the tournament schedule, match volume, and whether any knockout ties go to extra time, because only penalties taken in regular time, stoppage time, or extra time count under the rules. Recent coverage of the World Cup’s penalty landscape has highlighted that elite takers remain active in 2026, with Messi and Harry Kane sharing a World Cup penalty record for attempts, but that does not by itself predict more misses; it mainly signals that penalties can occur in high-leverage matches.[4] Any confirmed injury, weather disruption, or tactical shift that increases foul incidence could matter, but shoot-out sequences will not. On exchange structure, Kalshi-style venues tend to emphasise account verification and US access, while Betfair and Smarkets are typically broader betting-exchange products with different KYC reach and fee drag, so the same 4% headline can map to different net entry points across platforms.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We read World Cup: Number of Missed Penalties from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live quote comes directly from the Polygon order book; the other three are listed with their platform attributes — fees, KYC, settlement currency, payment options — because a 1:1 contract comparison without API access would be guesswork.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Alternative?

Zero. Polymarket Alternative routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Alternative triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.