Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 24?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Tokyo's lowest temperature on 24 May 2026 will be recorded at Haneda Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning traders must account for the full calendar day's minimum before the market locks. May in Tokyo typically sees lows between 15–18°C, though anomalies occur; the 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a warmer outcome or sparse liquidity in this niche weather contract.

Historical May temperatures at Haneda provide the baseline for calibration. Over the past decade, May lows have rarely fallen below 12°C, with 2020 recording a minimum of 11.8°C—an outlier driven by an unseasonable cold front. Most years cluster between 14–17°C. The Japan Meteorological Agency's seasonal forecasts, updated monthly, will shape trader expectations as May approaches. Polymarket's decimal odds format and Kalshi's binary structure handle this range-based resolution differently: Polymarket displays implied probabilities directly, whilst Kalshi's yes/no framework requires bettors to choose specific temperature bands, affecting how fees compound across multiple positions. Betfair and Smarkets offer lay options that Polymarket does not, allowing traders to short specific temperature ranges if they believe the crowd has mispriced warmer outcomes.

Watch for the Japan Meteorological Agency's May outlook release, typically issued in late April, which flags any anticipated pressure systems or warm air masses. El Niño or La Niña conditions influence North Pacific weather patterns and can shift seasonal norms by 1–2°C. Traders should cross-reference Wunderground's historical data methodology against Japan's official station records to avoid settlement disputes.

Methodology

We read Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 24? from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live quote comes directly from the Polygon order book; the other three are listed with their platform attributes — fees, KYC, settlement currency, payment options — because a 1:1 contract comparison without API access would be guesswork.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.