Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 23?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Tokyo's highest temperature on 23 May 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning traders must commit positions before the final reading is confirmed. This particular market shows 0% crowd probability, suggesting either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or minimal liquidity across all outcome ranges.

Tokyo's May climate sits at a seasonal inflection point. Historical data from the Japan Meteorological Agency shows late-May highs typically range between 24–28°C, with occasional spikes to 30°C during early heat waves. The 2023 May average peaked at 26.8°C; in 2022, the month's highest single day reached 31.2°C. These precedents matter because they establish the statistical plausibility of each temperature bracket. Across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Betfair, decimal odds diverge sharply on weather markets—Polymarket's binary structure forces traders into discrete ranges, whilst Kalshi's regulated US-based framework and Betfair's fractional odds allow finer granularity. Fee structures also differ: Polymarket charges 2% on winnings; Kalshi typically 5%; Betfair's commission scales with volume. KYC requirements are strictest on Kalshi, most permissive on Betfair for non-US users.

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency's seasonal forecasts, released monthly, and watch for any El Niño or La Niña signals that could shift May 2026 temperatures upward. Typhoon season begins in June, so late-May patterns often precede atmospheric shifts. Real-time tracking via Wunderground's historical archive will be essential once May arrives; the settlement source's data lag could create arbitrage windows between platforms if one book prices faster than others.

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 23? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.