Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 22?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Tokyo Haneda Airport is in its late-spring shoulder season, with daytime temperatures usually in the low 20s Celsius and a fair chance of a warmer spike if sunshine breaks through. Recent May benchmarks from travel weather guides put Tokyo around 16–22°C on average, with some central-Japan forecasts allowing highs into the mid-20s, but the market settles on the single highest reading at Haneda, not the day’s mean. That makes the upper tail more relevant than the headline average: a brief 26–28°C afternoon would be enough to shift the outcome into a higher band even if the rest of the day stays mild. On the current 0% YES crowd view, the comparison point is less “Will it be hot?” than “Is a late-May warm surge plausible enough to break the lower ranges?”

For traders comparing Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair and Smarkets, the key distinction is how each venue presents pricing and access. Polymarket and Kalshi quote directly in implied probability, while Betfair and Smarkets are typically read through decimal odds and exchange commission, which can make the same temperature band look slightly different after fees. The practical watchpoint is whether Haneda ends up with a clear afternoon maximum before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC, as early-morning coolness cannot rescue a forecast if the peak arrives later. Weather-wise, there is no major scheduled event needed here; the relevant catalysts are the day’s observed sunshine, wind direction and any warm advection across the Kanto plain, with May in Tokyo often turning briefly warmer than the seasonal average before the rainy season starts.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 22? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). PolyGram routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.