Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 7 July 2026, the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station will record its daily peak temperature in degrees Celsius, with the market resolving to the specific range containing that value. Historical data frames the current 0% implied probability for a “YES” outcome on any single range as a mispricing; July in Tokyo routinely sees highs between 25°C and 30°C, with AccuWeather forecasting daily highs of 76°–91°F (24.4°C–32.8°C) for the month [4]. Recent records show Japan hitting 41.2°C in Tamba city, breaking the prior 41.1°C near Tokyo, confirming that extreme heat is possible but not guaranteed for Haneda on this specific date [7][5].

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s weekly heat advisories and the El Niño/La Niña transition schedule, as these directly influence summer intensity in the Kanto region. A recent Met Office forecast for Haneda lists a maximum of 30°C, suggesting the market’s 50% frontrunner at 26°C and 38% at 27°C on competing platforms like Lines.com may reflect divergent liquidity rather than fundamental risk [8][3]. Platform mechanics diverge sharply here: Polymarket uses decimal odds (e.g., 0.50 for 26°C), while Kalshi and Betfair emphasise implied probability and fee structures that vary from 0% to 2%, with KYC requirements differing between offshore and regulated books [1][3]. These structural differences create arbitrage opportunities when one book prices 27°C at 38% while another implies 45% for the same outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 7? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?

Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?

Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.

Which platform has the deepest liquidity?

Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.

Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?

Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.

Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?

Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.