Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s temperature on 24 July is a straight weather print, with the market settling on the highest reading recorded at Haneda Airport from the Wunderground history page. The current crowd-implied 0% YES is best read as a pricing artefact rather than a view on the weather itself, because this market is already very late in the day and the settlement source is a single observed maximum rather than a forecast target. Tokyo in late July is normally deep into its hot, humid season, with major-city averages commonly in the mid-20s to low-30s Celsius and humidity still high, so outcomes around 28°C to 31°C are entirely consistent with climatology.[2]

For comparison, Polymarket shows a split front-runner structure here, with 28°C and 31°C each quoted at 50%, which is a very different presentation from exchanges that display decimal odds directly. That matters when comparing with Betfair or Smarkets: those books typically embed commission and, in many cases, a broader account-access and KYC framework, so the same weather view can look materially different once fees and spread are included. In practical terms, a platform showing “50%” is easier to compare with other prediction markets, while a betting exchange quote needs conversion from decimal pricing to implied probability before it is comparable.

The main catalyst is not a scheduled announcement but the actual daytime temperature path at Haneda, with the key risk being whether the day’s peak lands in a neighbouring band as the afternoon progresses. Tokyo’s late-July weather is often influenced by residual monsoon moisture and passing convective bursts, so the highest reading can move quickly if sunshine breaks through or if cloud cover limits heating.[2] On the market side, Polymarket launched this contract on 22 July and keeps it open until near settlement, whereas exchange-style books may move faster on late information but can be harder to access depending on jurisdiction and KYC rules.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 24? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?

Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.

Which platform has the deepest liquidity?

Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.

Which platform is accessible globally?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Polymarket Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.

Are all these platforms regulated?

No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.

Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?

Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.