Highest temperature in Taipei on May 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 26 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Taipei Songshan Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. The settlement hinges on official data from Wunderground's historical weather records for that specific station, which serves as Taiwan's primary aviation meteorological hub. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a particular outcome or minimal trading activity on this particular market across platforms.

Taipei's late May climate typically sits between 28–32°C, with occasional peaks above 33°C during early-season heat waves. Historical May data from Songshan shows the station rarely records highs below 26°C or above 36°C in this window, making extreme-range outcomes unlikely. Comparable markets on Polymarket, Kalshi, and Betfair show divergent liquidity patterns on weather contracts: Polymarket's decimal-odds format attracts retail traders comfortable with fractional pricing, whilst Kalshi's binary YES/NO structure and tighter KYC requirements appeal to institutional flow. Betfair's back-lay mechanism enables sharper probability discovery on niche events like this, though Smarkets' lower fees (2% versus Polymarket's 2–3%) can shift edge calculations on low-volatility weather outcomes.

Traders should monitor Taiwan's Central Weather Administration forecasts as May approaches, particularly any alerts for tropical systems or unusual pressure patterns that could drive anomalous temperatures. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 26 May, creating a hard deadline for final price adjustment once morning data becomes available. Platform-specific factors matter here: Kalshi's US-domiciled regulatory framework may restrict non-US participation on weather derivatives, whilst Polymarket and Betfair maintain broader international access, potentially fragmenting liquidity across venues.

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Taipei on May 26? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). Polymarket Alternative routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Alternative is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Alternative triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.