Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Shenzhen's maximum temperature on 25 May 2026 will be measured at Bao'an International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather records via Wunderground. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning traders must account for the full diurnal cycle before final resolution. This market type—pinpointing a single day's peak temperature in a subtropical coastal city—sits at the intersection of seasonal climatology and real-time meteorological variance, making it sensitive to both monsoon patterns and localised urban heat effects.

Shenzhen's May temperatures typically range between 28–34°C, with historical data showing the airport station recording highs of 32–33°C on average during this month. The 0% implied probability currently displayed suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or sparse liquidity across the market's range options. Kalshi's weather derivatives, which dominate US-listed temperature markets, often show tighter spreads on major cities; Polymarket's decentralised structure can fragment liquidity across similar outcomes. Betfair and Smarkets, meanwhile, typically price these markets with wider decimal-odds formats that may obscure the true probability distribution across temperature bands—a structural difference worth examining when comparing implied probabilities across platforms.

The South China monsoon season intensifies from May onwards, potentially driving cloud cover and convective activity that suppresses peak temperatures. Traders should monitor the China Meteorological Administration's seasonal outlooks and any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during late April and early May, as these directly influence Shenzhen's atmospheric conditions. The absence of scheduled major weather events or anomalies in current forecasts leaves this market largely dependent on climatological norms and real-time atmospheric conditions closer to the settlement date.

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 25? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.