Highest temperature in Seoul on June 24?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 24 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport will determine the outcome of a prediction market focused on Seoul’s early summer heat. Historical data shows that daytime temperatures in Seoul during June typically range from 19°C to 28°C, with the average warmest day reaching just 28.06°C. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests traders believe the temperature will not exceed the highest threshold offered, likely because June remains mild compared to the intense heat of July and August, when averages climb to 86°F (30°C) and peak highs reach 91°F (33°C).

Traders should monitor incoming monsoon forecasts and humidity trends, as June marks the start of Korea’s rainy season, which usually runs from late June to mid-July. Recent reports indicate heavy rain is expected across Seoul and surrounding areas on 19–20 June, which may suppress temperatures on 24 June. According to AccuWeather, Seoul’s daily highs in June 2026 range from 82°F to 93°F (28°C to 34°C), but the presence of rain and rising dew points—already in the low 70s Fahrenheit—can limit peak temperatures. Platforms like Polymarket, Kalshi, and Betfair diverge here: Polymarket uses decimal odds and minimal KYC, while Kalshi requires full identity verification and offers implied probabilities, and Betfair combines both with higher fees but broader liquidity. These structural differences affect how traders interpret the 0% probability signal across each book.

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Methodology

We read Highest temperature in Seoul on June 24? from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live quote comes directly from the Polygon order book; the other three are listed with their platform attributes — fees, KYC, settlement currency, payment options — because a 1:1 contract comparison without API access would be guesswork.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). Polymarket Alternative routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Alternative is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Alternative?

Zero. Polymarket Alternative routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Alternative triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.