Highest temperature in Seoul on June 20?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul’s airport high on 20 June will depend on whether a brief early-summer warm-up can break through any cloud or shower activity before the settlement window closes. For this date, published June climate guides point to typical Seoul daytime highs in the high teens to upper 20s Celsius, with late-June humidity and rainfall becoming more relevant as the month progresses, while the Korea Meteorological Administration describes daily highs as the day’s maximum daytime temperature.[1][3][5]

Against that backdrop, a **2% YES** price implies the market is leaning heavily towards the “not in the top temperature range” outcome, which is consistent with a fairly ordinary June day rather than an exceptional heat event. AccuWeather’s June outlook for Seoul shows highs spanning roughly **74°F to 89°F** (about **23°C to 32°C**), but that broad monthly range is not the same as a single-day realised high at Incheon International Airport Station, where marine influence can trim extremes versus inland Seoul.[4][8]

For traders, the key catalysts are the overnight and morning KMA updates, plus any shift in cloud cover, precipitation, or wind direction before the noon UTC close. On exchange-style books, the same weather event can look different depending on how odds are shown: Polymarket typically displays an implied probability, while Betfair and Smarkets quote decimal odds, and their fee treatment differs as well, with exchange commissions affecting net price more visibly on low-probability outcomes. KYC and account access also vary by venue, which matters if you are comparing where this market is actually available and at what cost.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Seoul on June 20? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Alternative is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Alternative?

Zero. Polymarket Alternative routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Alternative triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.