Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on May 22?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 22 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at São Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. The airport's weather station, located in the northern suburbs of Brazil's largest metropolitan area, serves as the official reference point for settlement. São Paulo's late autumn climate typically produces daily highs between 22–28°C in May, though variation depends on frontal systems moving south from the Amazon basin and Atlantic moisture patterns.

Historical May temperatures at Guarulhos show a median high around 25°C, with extremes ranging from 19°C during cooler years to 31°C during anomalously warm events. The 0% crowd probability across prediction platforms suggests traders are either uncertain about which temperature band will resolve or are awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts before committing capital. Kalshi's binary structure and Polymarket's categorical approach diverge here: Kalshi typically offers yes/no contracts on specific thresholds, whilst Polymarket's range-based format allows granular probability distribution across multiple outcomes. Betfair's decimal odds format can obscure implied probabilities for casual traders unfamiliar with conversion calculations, potentially explaining why some platforms show sharper probability differentiation than others on regional weather markets.

Traders should monitor the Southern Oscillation Index and Atlantic sea-surface temperatures through April and early May, as these drive frontal activity affecting São Paulo. The Brazilian National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) publishes monthly outlooks; their May 2026 forecast, typically released in late April, will be the primary catalyst for probability shifts. Wunderground's historical data feed confirms settlement methodology, though traders should verify station continuity—equipment changes or relocations occasionally affect long-term comparability.

Methodology

We read Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on May 22? from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live quote comes directly from the Polygon order book; the other three are listed with their platform attributes — fees, KYC, settlement currency, payment options — because a 1:1 contract comparison without API access would be guesswork.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). PolyGram routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.