Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

San Francisco’s peak heat on 14 July 2026 will be measured at the San Francisco International Airport Station, with resolution based on the highest Fahrenheit reading recorded that day via Wunderground. The market currently assigns 0% probability to a “YES” outcome for any unspecified threshold, while the frontrunner outcome is 80–81°F at 40%, followed by 78–79°F at 30% [1]. This distribution reflects typical midsummer conditions for the Bay Area, where marine influence often caps temperatures despite regional heatwaves.

Historical July peaks at KSFO rarely exceed 82°F, with most days clustering between 75–80°F, making the 80–81°F range the statistically most probable outcome. Comparable cases from 2023–2025 show that even during inland heat events, coastal fog and Pacific currents limit airport readings, supporting the crowd’s 40% weighting on 80–81°F [1]. Platforms diverge here: Polymarket displays implied probabilities directly, whereas Kalshi and Betfair use decimal odds, requiring conversion to assess the same 40% chance. Fee structures also vary, with Polymarket charging no platform fee on trades, while Smarkets applies a 2% commission on winnings.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s heat advisory schedule for the Bay Area and Wunderground’s daily KSFO history as the settlement window closes on 14 July 2026 at 12:00 UTC. No major announcements are pending, but dependencies include real-time fog coverage and offshore wind patterns, which historically suppress airport temperatures. KYC requirements differ significantly: Kalshi mandates full identity verification for US residents, while Polymarket allows crypto-based access with minimal checks, affecting liquidity depth on this weather contract.

Sources: 1

Methodology

We read Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 14? from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?

Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.

Which platform has the deepest liquidity?

Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.

Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?

Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.

What about Smarkets as an alternative?

Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.

Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?

Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.