Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

San Francisco’s highest temperature on 12 July 2026 will be recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station, with resolution based on Wunderground’s daily maximum. Historical July highs in the city typically hover around 70°F, rarely dipping below 64°F or climbing past 79°F, though extreme outliers have breached 100°F during heatwaves [1][2]. The current 0% implied probability for any YES outcome suggests the crowd expects the temperature to fall outside the defined range, likely due to an unusually narrow or high threshold that conflicts with typical mid-July norms.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s Bay Area forecasts and any incoming heat dome announcements, as these are the primary catalysts for temperature spikes. Recent records show SF hit 73°F in late January 2024, breaking a 125-year record, while July 12, 2021 saw a record-low maximum of 57°F, illustrating the city’s volatility [6][9]. On platform mechanics, Polymarket displays outcomes as implied probabilities (0–100%), whereas Kalshi and Betfair use decimal odds, and Smarkets emphasises commission-based pricing; fee structures and KYC requirements also diverge significantly, with Polymarket offering crypto-native access and Kalshi requiring US identity verification.

The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 12 July 2026, meaning the final reading must be captured before that timestamp. Given today’s date is 12 July 2026, 23:54 UTC, the market is effectively in its final hours, with no new data expected after settlement. Historical data from KSFO confirms the station’s reliability for official records, and Wunderground’s archive will serve as the definitive resolution source [3][7][8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We read Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 12? from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?

Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.

Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?

Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.

What about Smarkets as an alternative?

Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.

Which platform is accessible globally?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Polymarket Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.

Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?

Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.