Highest temperature in Paris on June 6?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 6 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport will determine which range this market resolves to. The settlement window closes at noon UTC that day, meaning only observations logged before midday count toward resolution. Wunderground's historical archive for this station serves as the sole authoritative source, with temperature data accessible in either Celsius or Fahrenheit depending on user preference via the platform settings.

Paris experiences early summer conditions in early June, with mean daily highs around 21–23°C and occasional warm spells pushing into the high 20s. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or minimal trading activity. Comparable June days at Le Bourget show variability: the station recorded 28.5°C on 6 June 2019 and 26.1°C on 6 June 2015. This historical range—roughly 20–30°C for early June highs—frames reasonable expectations, though outlier heat waves can drive temperatures above 30°C. Traders comparing Polymarket's binary or range-based structures against Kalshi's decimal odds or Betfair's fractional pricing will find this market's specificity (fixed temperature bands rather than continuous outcomes) affects hedging strategy differently across platforms.

Weather forecasting uncertainty increases beyond ten days, making current probability assessments preliminary. Météo-France and European weather models will become more reliable by late May 2026. Traders should monitor seasonal climate patterns and any Atlantic pressure systems forecast to influence northern France during early June, as these drive the difference between a cool (18–22°C) versus warm (26–30°C) outcome.

Methodology

We read Highest temperature in Paris on June 6? from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live quote comes directly from the Polygon order book; the other three are listed with their platform attributes — fees, KYC, settlement currency, payment options — because a 1:1 contract comparison without API access would be guesswork.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Alternative is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.