Highest temperature in NYC on June 6?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 6 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport will settle this market into one of several defined ranges. The National Weather Service maintains continuous temperature records at this primary New York observation station, and Wunderground's historical database will serve as the authoritative source for settlement. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extremely low liquidity or a technical issue with the market's display, as June temperatures in New York City typically range from 75–85°F, making any outcome within that band substantially more probable than the current odds imply.

Historical June weather at LaGuardia shows considerable variability. Over the past decade, peak temperatures on early June dates have ranged from 72°F to 89°F, with an average high around 79°F. Unusually warm years have occasionally pushed into the low 90s, whilst cooler patterns have kept readings in the low 70s. The current 0% probability across all ranges appears disconnected from this historical distribution and suggests the market may lack sufficient trader participation to establish meaningful odds. Kalshi and Betfair typically display more granular temperature bands than Polymarket for weather events, which can affect how traders calibrate their positions across different platforms.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service's extended forecast as June approaches; seasonal pattern shifts and Atlantic weather systems can materially alter expected highs. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on 6 June, meaning the final recorded high must be captured before that cutoff. Polymarket's fee structure and KYC requirements remain consistent with its standard terms, though alternative platforms may offer different liquidity pools for weather derivatives during the settlement period.

Methodology

We read Highest temperature in NYC on June 6? from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live quote comes directly from the Polygon order book; the other three are listed with their platform attributes — fees, KYC, settlement currency, payment options — because a 1:1 contract comparison without API access would be guesswork.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). Polymarket Alternative routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Alternative is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Alternative?

Zero. Polymarket Alternative routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Alternative triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.