Highest temperature in NYC on June 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event hinges on the peak temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 26 June 2026, with settlement determined by Wunderground’s daily high in degrees Fahrenheit. Current crowd-implied probability for a “YES” outcome sits at 0%, suggesting the market expects the temperature to fall below the specific threshold being traded, despite June typically bringing highs between 77°F and 92°F at this location[7].

Historical precedent frames this near-zero probability as potentially premature; recent June data shows daily highs frequently exceeding 80°F, and a record-breaking warm day in Central Park earlier this year saw temperatures approach 80°F in March, indicating early-season volatility[9]. Comparable markets on Kalshi and Robinhood for similar dates have resolved with outcomes like 82–83°F, demonstrating that 0% implied probability may not account for the full range of plausible heat spikes[2]. Traders comparing platforms should note Kalshi uses decimal odds while Polymarket and Smarkets lean on implied probability, and fee structures diverge significantly—Kalshi imposes KYC and transaction fees whereas Polymarket offers a more open, fee-light alternative[5].

Key catalysts include the National Weather Service’s climatological report for LaGuardia, which will confirm the official maximum temperature once the day closes[3]. Traders must monitor real-time Wunderground updates and any sudden shifts in regional wind patterns or cloud cover that could suppress or amplify heat. Recent forecasts for June 2026 at LaGuardia indicate a high probability of days reaching 85°F or more, making the current 0% market stance a potential mispricing if no major cooling event intervenes[7]. Platform-specific divergences in settlement timing—such as Robinhood’s 3–3:15 AM ET closure window—also affect when traders can react to final data[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in NYC on June 26? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). Polymarket Alternative routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Alternative?

Zero. Polymarket Alternative routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Alternative triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.