Highest temperature in NYC on June 24?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event determining this market is the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 24 June 2026, measured in degrees Fahrenheit. Historical data for mid-June in New York City shows daily highs typically ranging between 77°F and 92°F, with the average high hovering near 83°F[5]. Recent Polymarket markets for similar dates, such as 23 June and 8 June 2026, both settled with frontrunners at 74–75°F, indicating a consistent pattern where the market assigns near-certainty to this specific range[1][2]. The current 0% implied probability for the "YES" outcome on this specific prediction market suggests a structural divergence from platforms like Kalshi or Betfair, where decimal odds might reflect a non-zero chance for extreme outliers, whereas Polymarket’s fee structure and KYC reach often concentrate liquidity on the most statistically probable band, effectively suppressing tail-risk pricing[1].

Traders should monitor the incoming airmass and relative humidity levels, as low humidity combined with summer-like temperatures in the 70s and 80s could drive readings higher than the historical average[8]. The settlement relies exclusively on Wunderground data for LaGuardia, meaning any discrepancy between this source and other weather services will not alter the outcome, a dependency that differs from platforms offering multi-source verification. While the climatological record for LaGuardia on 24 June shows a maximum of 84°F in 2025, the current forecast suggests temperatures will remain within the standard summer band, making the 0% probability a reflection of the market’s confidence in the 74–75°F range rather than a dismissal of the event itself[6]. This concentration of implied probability highlights how platforms like Smarkets, which allow decimal odds to float more freely, might present a different risk profile compared to the binary certainty often seen on Polymarket for weather events.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in NYC on June 24? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Alternative is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Alternative?

Zero. Polymarket Alternative routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Alternative triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.