Highest temperature in NYC on June 22?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

A dangerous heatwave is currently gripping New York City, with temperatures surging well above seasonal averages and humidity creating oppressive conditions. Yesterday, Central Park recorded 102°F, the hottest June day since records began, while the National Weather Service issued excessive heat warnings across almost every county in the region [1]. This extreme weather event directly frames the current market probability of 0% for higher temperature ranges, as the immediate data suggests the peak heat has already occurred or is stabilising rather than escalating further.

Historical precedents show that June highs in New York typically peak around 83.6°F on 26 June, yet this year’s record-breaking 102°F in Central Park dwarfs the usual 98°F historical maximum for the month [1][5]. The divergence between Polymarket’s implied probability model and Kalshi’s decimal odds structure becomes critical here; while Polymarket traders see a flat 0% probability, Kalshi’s pricing might reflect a non-zero chance of a late spike due to its fee structure and lack of KYC barriers, allowing different risk appetites to price the tail risk differently [2]. Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s forecast updates, which indicate this heatwave could persist until the weekend, potentially pushing LaGuardia Airport temperatures closer to the 98°F record if humidity remains high [1].

The primary catalyst for traders is the scheduled release of daily high temperature data from Weather Underground for LaGuardia Airport (KLGA), which serves as the official resolution source [4]. Recent news confirms that Boston and Newark have also broken their all-time June highs, suggesting a regional pattern that could extend to New York if the light winds and strong sunshine continue [1]. Unlike Betfair’s commission-based model which penalises frequent scalping on volatile weather data, Smarkets’ lower fee structure might encourage more aggressive positioning on the 0% probability line if new data contradicts the current heatwave narrative [2]. The settlement window ending 12:00 UTC on 22 June 2026 requires precise attention to the exact timestamp of the daily high recording to avoid resolution disputes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We read Highest temperature in NYC on June 22? from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live quote comes directly from the Polygon order book; the other three are listed with their platform attributes — fees, KYC, settlement currency, payment options — because a 1:1 contract comparison without API access would be guesswork.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). Polymarket Alternative routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Alternative is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Alternative triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.