Highest temperature in NYC on June 12?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 12 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport will settle this market into one of several defined ranges. The settlement relies on historical weather data from Weather Underground, with the measurement taken across all daylight and evening hours on that single day. This is a straightforward meteorological outcome with no ambiguity in the underlying event itself, though the probability clustering at 100% YES suggests traders may be interpreting the market structure differently across platforms. Kalshi and Polymarket handle temperature bands with distinct odds formats—Kalshi typically displays American odds whilst Polymarket uses decimal odds—which can obscure whether the crowd genuinely believes all temperature ranges are equally likely or whether liquidity concentration in one band is creating an optical illusion of certainty.

New York's early-to-mid June weather historically ranges between 70–85°F, with occasional heat waves pushing into the low 90s. The 2024 June period saw temperatures peak at 88°F on the 12th itself, providing a recent comparable. Climate data from NOAA shows June temperatures in the region have trended slightly warmer over the past decade, though individual day variance remains substantial. Traders should monitor the National Weather Service's extended forecast window, which typically becomes reliable 7–10 days before the settlement date. Any Atlantic tropical system activity or unusual high-pressure systems developing in early June could shift expectations materially. Betfair and Smarkets, which offer tighter spreads on weather markets in some regions, may price individual bands more efficiently than the current 100% implied probability suggests, creating arbitrage opportunities for those comparing books.

Methodology

We read Highest temperature in NYC on June 12? from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live quote comes directly from the Polygon order book; the other three are listed with their platform attributes — fees, KYC, settlement currency, payment options — because a 1:1 contract comparison without API access would be guesswork.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Alternative?

Zero. Polymarket Alternative routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.