Highest temperature in NYC on June 11?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 11 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport will settle this market into one of several defined ranges. The National Weather Service maintains continuous temperature records at the station, and Wunderground's historical database will serve as the single source of truth for resolution. This is a straightforward weather outcome with no ambiguity in measurement—the thermometer reading at peak heat on that specific day determines the result.

New York City's June temperatures typically peak between 78°F and 88°F, with historical averages around 79°F for the daily high. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either absent from this market or treating it as a placeholder ahead of seasonal forecasting windows. Comparable June markets on competing platforms show meaningful activity only once May data arrives and meteorological models gain confidence; Kalshi's weather contracts often see sharper probability shifts in the final two weeks before settlement, whilst Polymarket's liquidity on niche weather outcomes tends to remain thin until mainstream attention builds. The current zero probability likely reflects minimal trading volume rather than genuine conviction that no temperature will be recorded.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service's extended outlook for early June 2026, typically released with useful detail around mid-May. Unusual heat waves or cold patterns affecting the Northeast will shift probabilities across the temperature bands. Unlike binary weather markets, range-based contracts like this one require calibration against seasonal normals and recent climate patterns—a trader comparing this across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Betfair would note that Betfair's decimal odds format sometimes obscures the implied probability distribution across ranges more clearly than Polymarket's percentage display.

Methodology

We read Highest temperature in NYC on June 11? from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live quote comes directly from the Polygon order book; the other three are listed with their platform attributes — fees, KYC, settlement currency, payment options — because a 1:1 contract comparison without API access would be guesswork.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Alternative?

Zero. Polymarket Alternative routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Alternative triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.