Highest temperature in NYC on August 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

The event is whether LaGuardia Airport’s highest temperature on 7 August lands inside a listed Fahrenheit band on Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table, which is the binding source here rather than the site’s Day High & Low summary. With the crowd currently assigning 0% to YES, the market is pricing an outcome that would require an unusually low reading versus the sort of late-summer warmth typically seen in New York City, where August highs often sit in the low-to-mid 80s°F and recent model guidance for the period has pointed higher rather than lower.[1][4][6][10]

For context, the nearest comparable temperature markets on larger books usually trade much closer to the forecast distribution than this implies: Polymarket shows outcome bands with probabilities rather than decimal prices, while Kalshi and similar US venues quote dollars/contract and often present different banding, so a “0%” read on one venue can mask a thin but non-zero tail elsewhere. The broader historical pattern also matters: New York’s annual extremes can be much hotter than an average August day, with 2026 having already produced a 100°F reading in the city by early July, which reminds traders that a single strong heat ridge can move the top end of the distribution quickly.[3][7][15]

Catalysts are mostly meteorological rather than event-driven: updated National Weather Service and AccuWeather forecasts, any Bermuda High-driven heat build, and whether afternoon convection or marine influence trims the peak. Traders should also watch for source-specific settlement mechanics, because Weather Underground’s Daily Observations can differ from the summary high, and a late update after the first datapoint for the following day will not count for resolution on the market’s rules. Platform frictions differ too: Polymarket typically has lower-latency crypto funding but narrower US accessibility, whereas Kalshi and Betfair-style books tend to have more familiar fiat rails and different fee/KYC constraints, which affects how fast a mispriced weather band can be arbitraged.[1][3][4][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in NYC on August 7? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?

Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?

Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.

Which platform has the deepest liquidity?

Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.

What about Smarkets as an alternative?

Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.

Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?

Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.