Highest temperature in Mexico City on May 25?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Mexico City's highest temperature on 25 May 2026 will be recorded at Benito Juárez International Airport, the official meteorological station for the capital. The settlement depends on historical weather data published by Weather Underground, which aggregates hourly readings throughout the day and identifies the peak temperature. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either absent from this market or viewing the outcome as highly uncertain across all temperature bands.

Mexico City's climate in late May sits at the tail end of the dry season, with typical highs between 26–28°C, though temperatures occasionally reach 29–30°C during heat waves. Historical May records show variability: the city has recorded highs ranging from 23°C to 32°C depending on atmospheric conditions and cloud cover. Comparable late-May markets on other platforms (Kalshi and Betfair both offer weather contracts on major cities) show similar sparse liquidity for single-day temperature ranges, though Polymarket's fee structure and decimal odds format may attract different trader demographics than fixed-odds bookmakers. The absence of meaningful probability distribution here reflects genuine forecast uncertainty rather than consensus pricing.

Traders should monitor seasonal weather patterns and any anomalous atmospheric systems developing in late April and early May 2026. El Niño or La Niña conditions, if present, could shift Mexico City's typical temperature profile. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 25 May, giving traders access to real-time forecasts until the morning of the event. Cross-platform comparison reveals that Kalshi's KYC requirements and Smarkets' European focus create different trader pools, potentially explaining why this straightforward weather contract remains unpriced.

Methodology

We read Highest temperature in Mexico City on May 25? from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live quote comes directly from the Polygon order book; the other three are listed with their platform attributes — fees, KYC, settlement currency, payment options — because a 1:1 contract comparison without API access would be guesswork.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). PolyGram routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.