Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 26 May 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in degrees Celsius. The settlement will depend on the Observatory's official "Absolute Daily Max" figure published in its Daily Extract dataset, with resolution delayed until that data is finalised. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES reflects the market's structure: traders are bidding on specific temperature ranges rather than a binary outcome, meaning all probability mass sits in one or more of the range options rather than in a null state.

Hong Kong's May temperatures typically range from 28–32°C, with historical daily maxima rarely exceeding 35°C during this month. The 30-year climate normal for late May sits around 31°C. Comparing across platforms, Polymarket's decimal odds format and fee structure (2% maker/taker) differ from Kalshi's binary-focused model and Betfair's commission-based approach; Smarkets and Kalshi both enforce stricter KYC requirements than Polymarket in most jurisdictions, which affects liquidity and entry friction for this niche weather contract. The absence of early-May 2026 forecasts means traders currently lack seasonal trend data; meteorological outlooks typically emerge 10–14 days before settlement, making late May the critical catalyst window for position adjustments.

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 26? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). Polymarket Alternative routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Alternative is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Alternative triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.