Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 9?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 9 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's maximum temperature in Celsius to one decimal place. This market resolves to whichever temperature band contains that official reading. The 0% crowd probability reflects the absence of historical data or seasonal forecasts specific to that date—a common pattern on weather markets where settlement lies more than eighteen months ahead. Kalshi and Betfair typically offer tighter liquidity on near-term weather contracts, whilst Polymarket's longer-dated weather books often show sparse order books and wide spreads, particularly for Asian locations outside major financial centres. The implied probability here suggests minimal trading activity rather than genuine confidence that no extreme heat will occur.

Hong Kong's June temperatures historically cluster between 28–33°C, with absolute daily maxima rarely exceeding 35°C in early June. The Hong Kong Observatory's climate database shows June averages around 29–30°C, though the city experiences occasional heat spikes during early monsoon transitions. Traders should note that Polymarket's fee structure (2% maker, 2% taker) and KYC requirements differ markedly from Smarkets' lower taker fees, which may influence participation on illiquid long-dated contracts. Resolution depends entirely on the Observatory's published "Daily Extract" data; delays in publication could postpone settlement beyond the 12:00 UTC window.

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 9? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). Polymarket Alternative routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Alternative is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.