Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 4?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 4 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in degrees Celsius. This market settles on that single data point, published in the Observatory's Daily Extract once the meteorological day closes. The settlement window ends at 12:00 UTC on that date, though actual resolution may lag until the Observatory finalises its records—a common friction point across prediction platforms when dealing with official government data releases.

Hong Kong's June temperatures cluster tightly by historical standards. The median daily maximum in early June sits around 31–32°C, with the 90th percentile near 34°C and extremes rarely exceeding 36°C before the peak summer heat arrives. The 0% crowd probability reflected here suggests traders are either awaiting range options to clarify the specific temperature bands available, or the market lacks sufficient liquidity to establish a baseline. On Polymarket, decimal odds and implied probabilities can diverge sharply in low-volume weather markets; Kalshi's binary structure and Betfair's lay mechanics would frame this differently. Smarkets' commission model and KYC requirements also shift the cost-benefit calculation for casual weather traders versus committed syndicates.

The Hong Kong Observatory publishes daily climate data with a lag of 1–2 business days. Traders should monitor the Observatory's website directly rather than relying on third-party weather feeds, as the resolution source specifies the official "Absolute Daily Max" figure to one decimal place. Tropical cyclone activity in early June remains a low-probability but high-impact catalyst; the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season began early, though Western Pacific patterns differ substantially. No scheduled announcements directly affect this market's outcome, making it a pure weather-dependent event with minimal exogenous news risk.

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 4? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Alternative is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Alternative?

Zero. Polymarket Alternative routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.