Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 17?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 17 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in degrees Celsius. This market settles to whichever temperature band contains that single daily maximum reading, sourced from the Observatory's published "Daily Extract" data once finalised. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, though resolution cannot occur until the Observatory publishes its official figures, typically within days of the observation period.

Hong Kong's June temperatures are highly predictable within narrow bands. Historical data shows daily maxima in mid-June cluster between 28°C and 32°C, with 30–31°C representing the modal range across the past two decades. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature bracket already priced elsewhere on competing platforms, or sparse liquidity on this particular market. Kalshi's weather contracts often attract tighter pricing on US-based observations; Betfair and Smarkets typically show wider spreads on Asian meteorological events due to lower trading volume. Polymarket's fee structure (2% maker, 2% taker) may explain why traders have not yet committed capital to narrow the probability distribution here.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any unusual atmospheric patterns—tropical cyclone activity in the South China Sea, for instance, can suppress June temperatures by several degrees. The Observatory publishes extended outlooks monthly; the May 2026 bulletin will be the final major catalyst before settlement. Cross-referencing historical analogues from June 2023–2025 on the Observatory's climate database will anchor expectations more precisely than crowd sentiment alone.

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 17? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Alternative is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Alternative?

Zero. Polymarket Alternative routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Alternative triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.