Highest temperature in Guangzhou on June 4?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Guangzhou will experience peak temperatures on 4 June 2026, with the settlement hinging on the highest reading recorded at Baiyun International Airport Station throughout that calendar day. The market resolves via Wunderground's historical weather database, which aggregates official station data in both Celsius and Fahrenheit—users must toggle the temperature unit manually via the platform's settings gear icon to verify the exact threshold their chosen range represents.

June temperatures in Guangzhou typically peak between 32–36°C, reflecting the city's subtropical climate during the early monsoon season. Historical June records at Baiyun station show daily highs consistently in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius, with extreme heat above 37°C occurring in roughly 5–10% of years during this month. The 0% crowd probability across prediction platforms suggests either extreme confidence in a moderate outcome or sparse liquidity; Polymarket's fee structure (2% maker/taker on resolved markets) and Kalshi's regulatory reach (US-focused KYC) create different trader pools, whilst Betfair and Smarkets' decimal-odds display may attract European participants more familiar with that format, potentially fragmenting consensus on tail-risk scenarios.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in late May, which typically provide 10-day outlooks for Guangzhou. Any unusual atmospheric patterns—tropical cyclone activity, heat dome formation, or monsoon delays—would shift probability mass toward higher temperature brackets. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 4 June, meaning traders have no post-midnight adjustment period; final odds should reflect the most recent meteorological guidance available by early June.

Methodology

We read Highest temperature in Guangzhou on June 4? from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live quote comes directly from the Polygon order book; the other three are listed with their platform attributes — fees, KYC, settlement currency, payment options — because a 1:1 contract comparison without API access would be guesswork.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Alternative is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Alternative triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.