Highest temperature in Chongqing on June 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Chongqing enters its peak hot season on 26 June 2026, with the city historically recording daily highs above 35°C during late June as the subtropical ridge intensifies over the Sichuan Basin[1]. The crowd-implied 0% probability for a specific temperature range suggests traders expect the day to remain well within the city’s typical summer band, where maximums frequently exceed 40°C[3].

Historical data shows Chongqing hit 43.2°C on 23 August 2022, its hottest day in recent records, while average daytime highs in June cluster around 28.7°C to 30.6°C[5][6]. Platforms diverge sharply here: Polymarket uses decimal odds reflecting implied probability, whereas Kalshi and Betfair quote fractional or decimal odds with distinct fee structures and KYC thresholds that may limit access for some traders on this weather event[4].

Traders should monitor the subtropical high-pressure ridge’s position, as its northward push could drive temperatures toward 31°C–32°C or higher, similar to patterns observed on 21 June 2026[4]. Recent forecasts from PredictWind indicate stable high-pressure conditions for Chongqing in June 2026, with minimal rainfall and consistent warming trends that support sustained high temperatures[2]. Watch Wunderground’s hourly updates for the Jiangbei International Airport Station, as settlement depends solely on its recorded peak for the day[7]. Fee structures and liquidity depth vary significantly between Polymarket, Smarkets, and Kalshi, affecting execution costs and slippage on this specific weather contract[4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Chongqing on June 26? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). Polymarket Alternative routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Alternative is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Alternative?

Zero. Polymarket Alternative routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.