Highest temperature in Chengdu on June 20?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Chengdu’s daytime high on 20 June will depend on the airport station reading, not citywide averages, and June is already within Chengdu’s hot season. Long-run guides put June highs around 28–30°C, with humid, rainy conditions, but several sources note that occasional mid-to-late June spikes into the mid-30s are possible[1][5][7][8]. That helps explain why a market pricing a very low terminal outcome is unusual on the face of it: the crowd-implied 0% for the current range says traders see almost no chance of a materially warm or hot day, even though the climatology still leaves plenty of room for an upside surprise[1][3][7].

For comparison, Polymarket shows outcomes as implied probabilities, so a 0% reading is a rounded market view rather than a literal impossibility; Kalshi and Smarkets typically present price or decimal-odds style quotes, which can make small moves in expectation easier to read, while Betfair’s exchange format adds commission and often reflects liquidity more directly. On a weather market like this, the main catalyst is the actual hourly evolution of the forecast at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport: cloud cover, rainfall timing, and whether a daytime heating window opens before convection arrives are what matter most. June in Chengdu is often humid with frequent showers, so the key trader watchpoint is whether forecasters keep the day capped near the low 30s or allow a brief burst of hotter air before rain and cloud suppress the maximum[1][5][7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Chengdu on June 20? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Alternative is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Alternative?

Zero. Polymarket Alternative routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Alternative triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.