Highest temperature in Beijing on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing’s 10 August maximum is normally a **summer-heat** question rather than a coin flip: climate guides cluster the city’s August daytime highs around 30–31°C, with daily peaks often reaching the low-to-mid 30s in hotter spells.[2][5][17][18] For this contract, the key point is that resolution comes from Weather Underground’s **Daily Observations** for Beijing Capital International Airport Station, so a crowd-implied 0% YES can be misleading if traders are reading a generic forecast or the broader “Day High & Low” summary instead of the station record the market actually uses.

Comparable forecast pages for Beijing on 10 August sit roughly in the 31–34°C range, which is materially above the lower bands in many market ranges and helps explain why the market should be read as a test of whether the day’s *observed* top temperature clears the relevant strike rather than whether it merely feels hot.[4][8][13] On platform mechanics, Polymarket quotes by implied probability, while Kalshi and similar regulated books are easier to compare in contract prices and exchange-style settlement; Betfair and Smarkets add fee differences and, in some jurisdictions, tighter KYC access, which can change how a small weather position is expressed even when the underlying view is the same.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Beijing on August 10? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?

Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?

Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.

Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?

Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.

Are all these platforms regulated?

No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.

Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?

Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.